Hi all! Anika here, China section editor at Carbon Brief. We’ve just published our latest quarterly analysis of China’s carbon emissions, conducted by CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta.
The numbers show that China’s carbon emissions fell 3.1% in July-September 2026. This was due to declines in coal power generation, oil use in the transport sector and coal-chemical industry growth.
Something I’ll be watching at COP31 is how much pressure there is on China to reduce its emissions. Its international climate pledge, which targets a 7-10% reduction in emissions by 2035, was seen by some as “conservative”. This analysis shows that, in practice, China may already be well on its way to meeting the goal.
You can find the analysis here 
Analysis: China’s quarterly CO2 falls 3% in largest drop since Covid - Carbon Brief
We’ll also be publishing a follow-up analysis in a couple of weeks, digging into the impacts of the Strait of Hormuz crisis and looking at what’s constraining China’s chemical sector.
Finally, for more on how the Strait of Hormuz crisis has accelerated EV adoption and driven down oil use, check out this recent article from our team Chart: A record two-thirds of car sales in China are now electric vehicles - Carbon Brief
Questions? Thoughts? Let us know in the comments!
